Fort Bend County saw an increase in residents and registered voters over the past six years but its voter turnout rates do not follow the same trajectory.
More registered voters does not automatically mean higher participation. Turnout rates tend to vary widely based on whether it is a presidential election year or a midterm.
2026 has proven quite the anomaly: record primary turnout and the highest amount of ballots ever cast in a county primary.
Let’s look at what brought us here.
Between the 2020 primary and this month’s election, the county increased by 109,263 registered voters. That’s a growth rate of nearly 24 percent.
The greatest share of those registered voters came between 2020 and 2022. Fort Bend gained 46,813 voters but also saw its lowest turnout rate of the last six years, 17.4%. If we look back at the 2018 primary (also a midterm year) we find turnout at 16.2%. This year saw a record turnout of 25.3% compared to other midterm years: 2018 and 2022.
Comparing 2020 and 2026 we see a slightly higher turnout rate in 2020 but remember that was a presidential election year and 2026 is a midterm. A midterm with record turnout.
So what is driving the 2026 numbers?
Democrats are. They’ve outpaced Republicans in turnout for a midterm primary for the first time in a generation.
Latino voters also showed up in the democratic primary in higher numbers than previous elections. The turnout rate is cycle dependent and likely points to mobilization by voters due to factors like the Senate race between Talarico and Crockett as well as a general discontent with current domestic and foreign policies coming out of Congress and the White House. Fort Bend’s 2026 primary turnout numbers follows the broader trend across Texas.
Turnout: Republicans v. Democrats
To showcase the difference between the two we’ll look at the 2024 and 2026 Senate races.
In 2024, 54,248 Fort Bend Republicans voted in the Senate race. In 2026, a similar 55,005 turned out.
In 2024, 38,586 Fort Bend Democrats voted in the Senate race. In 2026, a whopping 85,409 voted. Democrats are motivated to turnout this year. We’ll see what that means in November.